Bayern Trupp » but it doesnt suddenly make us

One of the e-mails I receive frequently about the application of advanced statistics in professional hockey regards “PDO”, and why the metric is so often referenced when discussing outlier performance. PDO is nothing more than a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage, expressed in thousands. It’s a simple calculation, but imperative when conducting analysis and forecasting future outcomes. The theory behind PDO is that shooting percentage is primarily luck-driven, and save-percentage is primarily luck-driven, and at the team-level, teams will consistently regress towards this 1,000 (i.e., the league average) number. Teams with extremely high PDO’s, say 1020 and above, are great bets to regress unfavorably. Teams with extremely low PDO’s, say 980 and below, are great bets to regress favorably. From time to time, we’ll see small deviations in genuinely great and genuinely terrible teams. But in most cases, it simply pays to (a) be skeptical that any percentage-fueled run is real; (b) focus on winning the shot-differential battle, because shot-differentials will predict future outcome far better than past shooting and save percentages will. PDO was at the heart of the 2013-2014 Toronto Maple Leafs debate – a team whose predictable and catastrophic end-of-year collapse pushed professional hockey into the analytics era. A bunch of smart hires were made by organizations around the league, and it seemed as though the debate over percentage-fueled runs and team-level shot quality myths were put to bed. Still, there seems to be some lingering doubt. Many, many words have been spilled about the 2013-2014 Colorado Avalanche, a team that – despite endless precaution – decided to double-down on mythological shot quality, ignoring innumerable red flags in the process. It wasn’t just the Avalanche organization buying stock, either. Bovada, an online sportsbook with a vested interest in outcomes, opened with Colorado as a 98.5 point team. On the other hand, that same online sportsbook opened up with the New Jersey Devils as an 83.5 point team – 15-points less than Colorado. Are these two teams fifteen points different? It’s possible the answer is yes, but not in the way you’d think. First, let’s look at each team’s ability to control play via Corsi%, starting with game one of last season and running it through today’s data. We’ll use a 10-game rolling average to smooth out results. Not a whole lot has changed from last year to this year, which is signified by the vertical line at the game 82 mark. New Jersey has consistently earned a better percentage of the shot-share, never once dipping below the 50% threshold over any 10-game stretch. Colorado, on the other hand, has been consistently subpar at controlling play. Other than a five-game window (31-36), they’ve been regularly under 50%. If you looked solely at the possession numbers and were aware of the tight correlation between controlling the puck and winning in today’s NHL, you would think that New Jersey was a playoff caliber team. Colorado? A lottery team. But, the hockey gods are funny sometimes. We know Colorado’s off to a horrendous and predictable 3-6-5 start, but the possession numbers don’t explain why things suddenly went south. Nor does it explain why New Jersey – who was a possession world-beater last year – failed to make the post-season. So, let’s go to the percentages, captured by the aforementioned PDO. Again, it’s more or less a measure of “puck luck”, and the likelihood of a team’s number regressing to 1,000 is extremely strong. We’ll roll Colorado and New Jersey’s PDO over 10-games to again smooth things a bit. Colorado sat well above the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. New Jersey sat well below the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. Whereas Colorado (8.07% Sh%, .931 SV%) saw all of the bounces at 5-on-5, New Jersey (7.12 Sh%, .914 SV%) did not. I think the dividing vertical lines on both of these graphs are amazing in the sense that they capture precisely what we’re looking for in terms of forecasting future outcome. When it came to a team’s ability to control play at 5-on-5 via Corsi%, both teams in 2014-2015 are reasonably near their respective 2013-2014 performance. This is because puck possession is repeatable. On the PDO graph, it’s the total opposite. The shooting and save percentages have flipped entirely, which is consistent with what we have seen in PDO volatility across many different teams over many, many years. New Jersey may have made the right move going from Martin Brodeur to Cory Schneider, but a goaltending switch wouldn’t explain how the team jumped from 26th to 14th in shooting percentage seemingly overnight. Randomness, of course, would. Combine that with generally out-possessing the opposition, and you have a respectable 6-4-2 record. On the Colorado side, the team has seen somewhat unfavorable percentage luck, but it’s far closer to the league averages than anything the team experienced last year. And, of course, the team is still getting drilled in the shot department. It’s a combination that generally ends up in fan bases paying attention to the draft lottery, rather than preparing for the post-season. Custom Charlotte Hornets Jerseys . - A pitch clock will be used this season during minor league games at Triple-A and Double-A, but it has been ruled out for the major leagues this year. Percy Miller Jersey . -- Green Bay wide receiver Greg Jennings will be on the sideline as the Packers make their push for a perfect regular season. http://www.hornetsteamproshop.com/Cheap-...Hornets-Jersey/. The 10-year deal the league and players agreed to that ended the 2011 lockout gave either side the right to opt out after six years. With the league projecting financial growth, there has been speculation that players will take that option in three years, especially since a new national TV contract will be in place by then. Nicolas Batum Jersey . - Skiing far more aggressively than in her season debut a day earlier, Lindsey Vonn was in provisional 10th place after the first 45 skiers in a World Cup downhill on Saturday. Muggsy Bogues Hornets Jersey .Then came December.Three straight losses, including a crushing 27-24 defeat to Washington (4-11) on Saturday, has the Eagles (9-6) on the brink of playoff elimination.Liverpool legend Phil Thompson believes that silverware is more important to the club than securing Champions League football ahead of Wednesdays Europa League final. The winner of Europes second-tier tournament will qualify for the group stages of the Champions League next season, adding to the importance of the Basel showdown between the Reds, who finished eighth in the Premier League, and La Ligas 7th-placed side, Sevilla.But Thommo, who won three European Cups during his distinguished Anfield career, insists securing silverware is still the most important factor for both the club and the players. Speaking to Sky Sports, Thompson said: If you ask me, winning a trophy is always the most important. People talk about finishing fourth like its winning a trophy but its not. Liverpool have seen off Dortmund and Villarreal to reach the final I think its massive for these players playing in another final. Winning trophies brings you a mentality which you cant put a price on.This is Liverpool Football Club and prestige of competing in finals, especially European ones, is huge, thats why players want to play for this club.Obviously a lot of people in England see it as second rate but in Europe its huge. I remember in 2001 when we won our three trophies and all the foreign players and Gerard Houllier saw the UEFA Cup as the most important one over the FA Cup and League Cup. Winning trophies brings you a mentality which you cant put a price on. Phil Thompson However, Thommo has warned Liverpool fans not to get too carried away if they do return to Europes top competition as Klopp comes to the end of his first season in charge.He added: It puts us back up there competting with the best but it doesnt suddenly make us contenders to win the Champions League.dddddddddddd. Jurgen Klopp insists Liverpool dont need luck to beat Sevilla in the Europa League final Finishing seventh in the Premier League isnt good enough. Its a stepping stone in the right direction but its consistency that this team need in order to compete for the league.What people have still got to remember is this is Brendan Rodgers squad so Klopp still has to do a fair bit of tinkering to get a the right players for his style of play to really be effective. Thommo predicts... Find out what Thommo is predicting for the Europa League final here. Also See: Gerrard hopes for springboard Souness: Reds to win in style Liverpool v Sevilla preview Route to the final ' ' '